Journal of the Marine Biological Association of India

Volume 42 Issue 1&2

Modelling and forecasting of India's shrimp export.

S. Ravindran and Prajneshu

All -India shrimp export data is modelled via a new promising approach, viz. "Structural Timeseries Modelling". The series under consideration follows an autoregressive process. This procedure is subsequently compared with the well known Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methodology. It is found that the former technique performs much better than the latter, as judged by various goodness of fit criteria. Finally, identified model is used to forecast shrimp export for the next five years.

Date : 30-12-2000